Multifamily Real Estate Investing – Ignore the Noise and Focus on What’s Not Going to Change
One of the main reasons I write online is to document how I think during uncertain times, and right now, in early April 2025, things feel especially uncertain. Every major headline points to chaos: a trade war with China, a sharp selloff in Treasuries, a volatile stock market, falling consumer confidence, fear of inflation, growing concerns of a recession etc. etc. How can you make high-conviction investment decisions in this setting? WSJ - 4/11/25 A lot of this noise, however, is just that - noise. Yes, these issues matter, and it’s important to stay informed, but for long-term...
Beyond the Numbers: Why Stories Drive Multifamily Investments
Picture this - you arrive on a site tour and you're met with overgrown landscaping, trash littered across the property, and a leasing office that’s completely deserted. The gutters sag with years of neglect and a quick search reveals a reputation marred by poor Google reviews, an outdated website, and minimal online presence. It’s clear why rents are trailing the comp set and why we believe we can come in and quickly cure the mismanagement and bring rents to market. These classic telltale signs of mismanagement and value-add potential are the opening chapter of a compelling investment...
10 Things I’m Pondering Going into 2025
Typically, at this time of the year I’m down in Florida, enjoying some time in the sun with my family. However, this year is a bit different. We’re patiently waiting a new baby, providing some extra time to ponder the year ahead. It’s the calm before the storm. Nobody needs another year-end roundup or set of predictions, but this isn’t for you. It’s for me. One of the reasons I enjoy writing so much is that I find it helpful to craft narratives around all the messy data, events, and random chaos that surrounds me. It provides a much-needed sense of calm. This is the story I’m telling...
What is an ‘Atlas Deal’?
The deal had everything we look for: a clear value-add story, forced seller, and it was in a high-growth pocket within a city we’re bullish on. We structured a creative back-door equity participation with the seller, and we had pre-existing relationships with the preferred equity provider (decision-maker) and lender, who was on board to restructure the loan. It had all the hallmarks of an ‘Atlas deal’. Bids were due, and we came in just below guidance, confident in our offer. The next day, the broker called with news that Blackstone came over the top with an all-cash bid,...
Hard Won Insights and a Single-Minded Focus on Multifamily Real Estate Investing
This week, I was sitting in a conference room in Fort Lauderdale, surrounded by prominent multifamily investors. We were having a closed-door, off-the-record conversation about all things multifamily. I was in heaven. I got to ask questions and hear insights from experienced multifamily investors who have been through cycles, grown platforms, and experienced failure. I feel fortunate that I found my career passion – building a platform for investing in housing. It consumes most of my headspace and is intertwined in many aspects of my life; I write here, I tweet constantly, and I...
The Evolution of a Private Real Estate Investment Company Continued…
In early 2023 I wrote about the evolution of Atlas, highlighting our transition from JV structures to owning deals without partners, from buying 70’s/80’s vintage assets to focusing on 2000 and newer, and from syndicating deals to raising capital from a mix of HNW, family office, and other private capital sources. It’s been an eventful ~16 months, so I’m sharing part II of our evolution as a private real estate investment firm. Everything mapped out in the initial post has come to fruition; our last two acquisitions were 2015 and 2019 vintages deals with no partners, we’re expanding our...
Is it too Early to Buy Multifamily?
We all know the famous Warrant Buffet quote, “be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful”. It’s a saying that gets thrown around often these days, but not one that’s applicable to the current multifamily market. There’s general optimism in the market and plenty of capital waiting to be deployed for the right opportunities. However, owners of high-quality multifamily assets are unwilling to sell for ~20% discounts, especially when NOIs are up, there’s considerable dry powder, and there are expectations of rates falling. They may sell at ~5%-10% discounts,...
The Truth about Real Estate’s Latest Dirt Word: “Syndication”
In real estate, when the market is hot and values/cash flows are increasing, every mistake gets overlooked. When the market turns (and it always does), investors scrutinize everything. However, in today’s world where anyone can produce media, it’s not just investors who scrutinize, it’s anon Twitter accounts, newsletters, niche media sites etc. In real estate today, there’s no bigger public punching bag than multifamily syndicators. I’m not going to say it’s undeserved. There are several high-profile examples of multifamily syndicators who got over their skis, charge exorbitant...
Buying Value-Add Multifamily in the Southeast: A Differentiated Strategy
“We buy value-add multifamily properties in high-growth Southeast markets.” There isn’t a more popular or less differentiated strategy in the multifamily space today. This prevalent investment strategy was especially apparent after spending a few days at NMHC talking to brokers, investors, and other operators. While it’s important to keep your pulse on the market, there’s something striking when you have ~30 conversations over the course of 48 hours with people of similar backgrounds and life experiences, who generally read the same things and talk to the same people. Everyone more...
5 Things I’m Pondering Going into 2024
We made it. 2023 was by far the most difficult of my professional career which started in 2011. I dealt with a myriad of deal and market-related issues; uncapped floating rate debt straining cash flows, raising preferred equity behind an agency loan, inability to access construction financing, complex capex challenges in an environment with no liquidity, and general market pessimism which makes everything feel worse. In the past, rents/values kept growing and with interest rates at zero, we’ve been able to continually refi deals at higher valuations, and sock proceeds away as reserves or...
Fall 2023 State of the Multifamily Market – Time for Optimism
Although it’s only been a few months since my last state of the multifamily market update, I feel like it’s time to write another one. That post is not dated by any means but needs to be expanded upon. The world is changing rapidly, pessimism has crept in, rates being higher for longer is becoming consensus, and ‘survive until 25’ is the new motto. I spend a lot of time reading and talking with people, attempting to organize my thoughts in a cohesive narrative that drives my investment thesis. This post is another attempt to take all the messy information and weave it into a story that I...
Is there such thing as Alpha in Value-Add Multifamily Investing? Absolutely!
The value-add multifamily (“VAM”) business was the darling of real estate investing over the past decade. In a zero interest rate environment where capital flooded the space, it was impossible to do wrong. The more you bought and the more aggressive floating rate debt you used, the better you performed. What a time! Things have shifted quickly and the sentiment toward VAM investing has turned negative. The real estate rags and online discourse are littered with outlier distressed situations. In November 2022 the co-founder of a well-known syndicator was featured in Entrepreneur Magazine...
Summer 2023 Multifamily Landscape: Best Buying Opportunity in a Decade?
Over the past few years, with the world changing so rapidly, I’ve posted several times on the state of the multifamily market. It’s been a great way to organize my thoughts, distill all the information I’ve been consuming into a semi-coherent narrative, and justify my investment strategy. Here are just a few of the posts: Making Sense of the Multifamily Market (June 2022) A Golden Era for Apartments? (February 2021) What’s Going on with the Multifamily Market (August 2020) This is the Moment We’ve all been Waiting for (June 2020) Suffice to say, my views on the market change quickly, but...
Smooth Operator: The Key to a Seamless Transition
We recently acquired a 256-unit value-add deal in Savannah, GA. Despite being a relatively new asset (2015 construction) and performing well (95% historical occupancy), we intend to upgrade and reposition the property, targeting rents approximately $250 above the market rate at takeover. We believe there is unmet demand in the submarket, which has experienced significant growth in recent years. However, achieving success requires flawless execution and a flexible hold period. Flawless execution begins prior to takeover. We establish goals and expectations for the staff. At Atlas, we...
The Evolution of a Multifamily Syndicator
Every so often, I go back and read old blog posts to get a sense of my thinking at the time. It can be embarrassing (like the bearish case for multifamily in 2019), but others (such as why we prefer value-add deals and long-term holds and our 4 forms of sustainable competitive advantage) serve as incredible resource for me to understand my views at specific times and as a result, reflect on my decision-making. One thing I’ve consistently said over the years is that by establishing trust with our investors, we can scale our high-net-worth capital base. With the use of technology and...
Taking a Differentiated Approach to Developing & Operating Multifamily Real Estate
Over the past decade multifamily investors had it easy; interest rates were nearly zero, debt was widely available and cheap, capital poured into the space compressing cap rates, fundamentals were strong etc. It was nearly impossible not to well. The key to success was just being in game and outperformance meant not selling too early. That’s quickly changed. We’ve shifted from an asset market to an operator market, where success requires buying assets at the right basis and executing well. Outperformance, going forward, will require differentiation. Packy had a great post on...
Expecting Multifamily Distress in 2023? You’re Going to be Disappointed
I started my career in real estate in 2011 and have experienced a decade of low rates and increasing asset values. Success in multifamily investing was driven simply by being in the game. Well, the game has changed. Today’s environment is unprecedented. I’ve been spending an inordinate amount of time recently reading macro news, speaking with brokers, and underwriting deals. We’ve quickly shifted from over-exuberance to fear and everyone I speak to in the multifamily space is preparing for “distress” and lining up capital for buying opportunities. While there has been a much-needed...
Long-Term Trends Impacting Multifamily
As 2022 winds to a close, I’m sure you’re getting inundated with predictions for 2023. While I certainly enjoy making predictions (like I did in 2019), I struggle with forecasting short-term trends. In 2019, for example, I was talking about renter flexibility and the disruption of the STR business. While the predictions were directionally correct, real estate is a slow-moving business with trends emerging over decades, not in a single year. What’s more relevant and interesting to me are the longer-term trends impacting the multifamily industry. At Atlas, we buy/develop quality multifamily...
Reflecting on the Sale of a Winner
When I look back at my time at Atlas over the past 11 years, the mistakes we’ve made have primarily been selling multifamily assets too soon. Selling class B assets in Tampa or Salt Lake in 2016/17, for example. These mistakes inspired me to put a note on top of the deal plaque which says “never sell winners”. The more refined quote I remind myself of is to “hold winners as long as possible and sell losers as quickly as possible.” I look at it every day. A few weeks ago, we sold a winner. One of the first deals we acquired when I joined Atlas in 2011 was a property in Naples, FL. The...
Understanding the 2021 Multifamily Demand Surge
At Atlas, I oversee a portfolio of multifamily assets primarily located in the Southeast. What an easy job that was in 2021! Rents and occupancy boomed as we experienced record new lease demand and high resident retention. The chart below highlights the YoY lease trade-outs by month from Feb 22’ through September 22’. YoY Rent Growth - FL Portfolio This post is my desire to better understand the dynamics of 2020 and 2021 rent growth explosion. At first, it was a bit of a mystery to many housing economists, but looking back it’s obvious. From 2009 to 2015, I Iived in NYC with two buddies....
Multifamily Investors: Ignore the Shiny New Objects and Focus on what Matters Most
I’ve been on vacation the past few days, largely ignoring the deluge of headlines and incessant barrage of market news (what a week to be away!). It’s tough at first because tracking the latest news feels a bit like sport, but over a few days I’ve begun to realize that the news is largely irrelevant and often detracts from my long-term goals. While keeping your pulse on the general market is important, getting caught up in the “shiny new objects” as Peter Linneman calls them, is generally a waste. The daily movements of interest rates, when inflation recedes, speculation on Fed actions,...
Why Multifamily Values are Down 10%-20%
As I’ve noted many times before, I view this blog as a tool to clarify my thinking, vet ideas, and share my views at specific points in time. Given the volatility and uncertainty in the current market, I’ve spent more time reading, thinking and writing recently. The multifamily market today is particularly interesting. I wrote a general update back in June, where I provided an overview of inflation and rates, the single-family housing market, the strength of the consumer, and multifamily supply/demand fundamentals. TLDR: multifamily fundamentals remain strong, I expect rent growth to be...
Making Sense of the Multifamily Market Today – June 2022
The multifamily market today is the strangest in my relatively short career (12 years). The range of potential economic outcomes is wide, and I certainly lack the experience to assess the impact inflation, rates, and a recession may have on the multifamily market over the near-term. What’s great about having this outlet is that I get to write things down and think out loud, documenting my thoughts and doing my best to make sense of the market. While admittedly I’m not sure what’s going to happen, the over-used adage rings true – while history may not repeat itself, it does rhyme. ...
Building Multifamily in Today’s High-Cost Environment
It’s an interesting time in the multifamily development space. Although rents have surged, construction costs, labor, and land prices have increased significantly as well, making it difficult to build anything but luxury projects designed for the affluent renter. At Atlas, we’ve historically focused on value-add workforce housing. Core to our thesis is that it’s nearly impossible to build middle-income housing today given land costs, construction costs, and general NIMBYism. Over the past few years, we’ve launched a ground-up multifamily opportunity zone development platform which we’re...
My Observations of NIMBYism
After 12 years of living in cities, my family bought a house and moved to the suburbs in 2021. We settled in a classic North Jersey train line town, with idyllic tree-lined streets and vibrant downtown. It’s a great place to raise a family. For the most part, we’ve loved living here. It’s a family-oriented community, has a walkable downtown with shops & restaurants, and provides easy access to NYC, Philly, the Jersey Shore, and the Poconos. We couldn’t be happier with our decision. However, there is one observation which has frustrated me; the anti-housing opinion of the outspoken...
How to Buy Multifamily Deals in 2022
It’s no secret multifamily valuations are through the roof with cap rates at all-time lows as capital pours into multifamily real estate, especially in high-growth southeast markets. In addition to cap rate compression, we’re experiencing unprecedented rent growth, driving values up further. The combination of compressing cap rates and rent growth is leading to eye-popping valuations, most notable on a price per pound basis. In the Florida apartment market, where I’m most active, many 80’s vintage deals are trading for ~$350k+ per unit and new construction deals are eclipsing the $400k...
When it’s right to Sell Real Estate…Almost Never
I used to be a religious reader of the Howard Marks memos, but at some point they started to get a bit repetitive…“move forward, but with caution...” However, his most recent, Selling Out, really resonated with me. I’ve always believed real estate is best held long-term (although easier said than done) as long as you structure deals in a fashion that enables you to do so, the asset/submarket has long-term upside potential, and there aren’t better opportunities to re-invest proceeds. At Atlas, our biggest investing mistakes came by selling multifamily assets too early. We sold three...
Southeast Multifamily: Institutionalization, Rent Growth, and Room to Run?
Happy new year! As we kick off 2022, I wanted to dig into one of the hottest real estate segments, multifamily in high-growth markets in the Southeast. At least once a week I hear about a new fund targeting value-add multifamily deals across the Southeast, an operator opening a Miami office, or an Opportunity Zone fund targeting sites in the Sunbelt. This isn’t just anecdotal, the Sunbelt has been gaining share of the total apartment sales consistently since 2007, growing from ~35% of total sales volume to nearly ~60% today (3Q2021 - RealPage). That growth has come primarily at the...
Viewing Apartments as a Consumer Product
Real estate is a massive and surprisingly complex business (just ask Zillow). Innovation is relatively slow and certain aspects of the business have been done a specific way forever. The challenge when attempting to innovate is deciphering whether things are done that way for a good reason, or just because no one’s attempted to disrupt the status quo. I believe multifamily properties should be viewed as a consumer product, designed with specific customers (residents) in mind. The unit mix, unit layouts, amenity set, branding and marketing, and operational approach should be tailored to...
Breaking Down the Historic Multifamily Rent Growth
2021 has been a crazy year and it’s difficult to comprehend what’s going on. Take the multifamily industry for example. When I speak with people outside commercial real estate, they’re shocked when I tell them about the historically high rent growth and occupancies we’re experiencing today. With COVID issues lingering, relatively high unemployment, and “everyone they know buying homes”, most people assume the multifamily market is struggling. As we all know, that’s not the case. In fact, the opposite is true; apartments are experiencing unprecedented levels of demand leading to...
Crypto – Changing how we work and live
Atlas is under construction on a 310-unit multifamily community in Nashville. Over the past few weeks, we’ve redesigned the common areas, eliminating vanity amenities like game rooms and adding more private office space. The pandemic combined with new technologies has accelerated the flexible work model and is giving rise to a whole new creative class of entrepreneurs. With this in mind, we believe there will be more residents working outside a traditional office so it’s critical to include functional and fully equipped private workspaces within new multifamily communities. The shift to...
The Evolution and Future of Apartment Community Short-Term Rentals
The lines between hospitality and traditional apartment communities continue to blur, with the modern renter expecting flexibility. The way we work has forever changed and we will not go back to our pre-COVID lives once we reach herd immunity. As an apartment operator, we’re responding to demand shifts by offering residents the optionality to lease units on a short-term basis and move out with limited notice. Today, this optionality is provided by 3rd party short-term rental operators who partner with landlords and handle all the logistics of sourcing and managing residents who plan to...
Is there such a thing as a Multifamily ‘Brand’?
Multifamily real estate is evolving to become more of a consumer product. By that, I mean that real estate is becoming more flexible, branded, and focused on the consumer. At the same time, ownership of apartments is rapidly shifting from individuals to regional and national firms. As the industry becomes more institutional, we are seeing firms roll up their communities under brands. I use that term ‘brand’ loosely. A brand, to use Seth Godin’s definition, ‘is a set of expectations, memories, stories, and relationships that taken together, account for a consumer’s decision to choose one...
The Best Amenity is Affordability
There is a lot of conversation within the multifamily real estate development community about the size and layout of unit types. For years, the average size of apartments was trending downward as developers favored density to achieve higher rents per square foot to make deals pencil. In a post-pandemic world where we anticipate more ‘work from anywhere’ including the home, the chatter is around increasing unit sizes. In my view, it’s not that straightforward. What I look at is affordability, functionality, and designing with a specific end user in mind. Here are a few of the topics I’m...
A ‘Golden Era’ for Apartments?
My recent post, things don’t stay good forever, was intended to serve as a reminder that even when things are good, fundamentals matter. It was not a bearish take on multifamily. In fact, I’m as bullish multifamily real estate today as I’ve ever been. Dr. Peter Linneman recently joined Willy Walker to chat about the economy and real estate market. When Dr. Linneman talks, people listen. So when he claimed the next decade is going to be a ‘golden era’ for apartments, the industry took notice. His thesis is straightforward; in a world starved for yield and awash with money, asset classes...
Things Don’t Stay Good Forever
One of the great things about sharing my thoughts in a public is that I have a record of how I was thinking about things at specific points in time. I can easily revisit old posts to see how wrong (often) or right (10 predictions for multifamily in 2020) I was. Today, in January 2021, multifamily real estate is at a crossroads. Despite a pandemic causing massive unemployment and impacting property performance, low rates, excess capital, and a search for yield has compressed cap rates and increased demand for multifamily. In today’s economy, any asset that generates predictable income is...
Rethinking Class B Multifamily Supply Risk
At Atlas, we focus primarily on value-add workforce housing. One of the most attractive aspects of the asset class is that it’s difficult to add new supply. Capped supply + growing demand = outsized income growth and price appreciation! But just how capped is supply of value-oriented multifamily? In a previous post I wrote about the constraints to building middle-income housing, however, I’m beginning to reassess those constraints. When the incentives to build are strong enough, creativity and ingenuity kicks in. Here are 3 main drivers that could lead to increased supply of workforce...
What’s going on with Multifamily Rents and Occupancies at Class B/C Properties – October 2020
Multifamily as an asset class has performed well since the onset of COVID, especially Class B and C properties. As of the end of Q2, occupancy and rents were more or less flat. This is staggering when you consider employment was down 11.5 million jobs and the Q2 GDP declined by an annualized 32.9%. Let’s unpack the story, starting with occupancy. The strong occupancy is easier to explain than resilient rents. Most impactful has been the many forms of eviction moratoriums. Residents who would typically be evicted for non-payment or skip to avoid eviction, are hunkering down and remaining...
The State of Evictions and the Role of Housing in Poverty
If you work in multifamily real estate (especially workforce housing), you’ve probably spent a lot of your time recently monitoring collections, modifying payment procedures, and working with delinquent residents. You’ve been closely tracking the various eviction restrictions enacted by the CARES Act, state and local agencies, and the CDC, trying to make sense of what it all means and what adjustments you should be making at the property-level. You’ve likely lost sleep thinking about the impact the expiration of the additional $600 per week in unemployment benefits may have on collections...
What’s Going on with Multifamily – August 2020
As I write this, I’m sitting in my home office, working at full capacity. The S&P 500 is back near all-time highs and asset prices have remained high, driven by the reduction of interest rates to near zero and the liquidity that has flooded the markets. Things almost feel good. What’s happening in the economy, however, is a stark contrast. In Q2 we experienced the greatest setback in history (based on GDP decline), COVID-19 isn’t anywhere close to being under control, and a second spike is looming, complicating efforts to re-open the economy. In May, I wrote about the widely-held...
‘Co-Living meets #vanlife’
In my previous post, I discussed the concept of living-as-a-service, flexible housing models driven by technology which cater to young professionals who can work and live anywhere. The accelerated trend of remote work along with the growing passion economy is fueling these new housing models. While we’re seeing innovation within traditional housing models, we’re also seeing non-traditional housing models emerge such as Kibbo. Kibbo is a network of high-end RV parks which cater specifically to ‘remote-working, previously urban professionals (PUPs)’. For $1,000/mo. members get access to...
Living-as-a-Service
Multifamily real estate is shifting from an asset class to a business. What was once viewed as a ‘passive’ investment is becoming a sophisticated operation. Accelerated by the Coronavirus pandemic, the preferences of today’s renters have changed. The one-sized-fits-all model of the past is dead. Knowledge workers expect flexibility. They’re not tethered to a single geographic location. They expect to access everything seamlessly through technology. And they expect great customer service. The game has changed, creating opportunities for nimble real estate firms and new entrants into...
Building more Middle-Income and Workforce Housing
At Atlas, we focus primarily on acquiring value-add workforce housing. A big part of our investment thesis is that you can’t build new middle-income housing, so supply is capped while the demand for high-quality middle-income housing keeps growing. This is just a fact accepted by most real estate operators and as a result, capital has poured into workforce housing, cap rates have compressed, and returns are squeezed. Few understand the dynamics at play which make it nearly impossible to build much-needed middle-income housing today. To better understand why we aren’t building...
What’s going on with Multifamily Collections?
If I were to tell you that ~40% of your residents were unemployed, what do you think that would do to rent collections? Would you believe me if I told you multifamily collections were more or less unaffected through May? Probably not. So what’s going on? One of the sad realities of the coronavirus is the disproportionate impact it has on those at the lowest income and education levels. Most wealthy individuals can work from home and escape areas most hard hit by the virus. The individuals putting themselves at risk by working are doing so because they must. A majority of those who have...
COVID-19 Impact on CRE: Accelerating Trends and Secular Shifts
There’s a lot of chatter and speculation in the commercial real estate community about what a post-Corona world will look like. Is business travel dead? Will consumers ever shop in malls again? Are we all going to be working remotely? Are people going to move out of cities and into the suburbs? Will we have to practice social distancing in restaurants and bars? What happens to gyms and fitness classes? Who knows. I think the world is going to look very different over the next few months, but we’ll eventually begin to act more and more like we did pre-Corona. It’s important to remember...
Should I pay my rent?
Over the past 3 weeks, nearly 17 million people filed for unemployment. True unemployment at this moment is about 18%, compared with just 3.5% as of the first week of March. Many of these individuals rent apartments, have little in the way of savings, and find themselves in a difficult position. Thankfully, the government has taken swift action. The recently enacted CARES Act puts money in the hands of individuals so they can keep paying their bills, but the timing of the stimulus remains uncertain. The CARES Act also put a moratorium on evictions for any property financed with...
Thoughts on COVID-19 and the Impact on Workforce Housing: March 22nd, 2020
I started my career in the real estate business in 2009, the bottom of the Global Financial Crisis. It’s been a historic 10+-year run for the multifamily sector. The combination of economic growth, organic rent growth, compressing cap rates, and sustained low interest rates lead to great returns. That’s easy to say looking backward. There were many moments over the past 10 years where it felt like pricing was frothy and the music was ready to stop. My career has always been underscored by the risk of a recession driven by an unknown catalyst. I graduated from college in 2008 and saw...
3rd Party Property Management: Far from a Set it and Forget it Solution
Many multifamily operators (Atlas included) utilize 3rd party property management to oversee the day-to-day management of their properties. It’s great in many ways. You can maintain a lean team, utilize the resources of a large institutional management firm, and make a change if they’re not performing up to your standards. That said, implementing a 3rd party to oversee your deals is hardly a ‘set it and forget it’ solution. Multifamily properties require aggressive hands-on asset management and certain tasks must be handled at the ownership level. In my experience, here’s what 3rd party...
The Game has Changed: The Importance of Connecting with Residents
Direct to consumer brands (think Harry’s, Warby Parker, and Casper) have stolen market share from the incumbents. Their success isn’t because they have a slightly better product, it’s because they are obsessed with connecting with the customer. Real estate owners/operators can learn a lot from the success of digitally native DTC brands. In the apartment industry, there is little brand awareness and almost no brand loyalty, so residents are up for grabs. Owners who resonate with prospects, offer a great value, and cater to their lifestyle will ultimately win. I spend a disproportionate...
Two Multifamily Myths Debunked
The demand for multifamily remains strong, but the drivers of demand are often different than what most people think. Tell me if you’ve heard these two narratives: Millennials are moving more often so they prefer the flexibility of renting.Millennials have a shifting preference toward renting over buying. I’ve heard these from many smart real estate professionals who typically use anecdotal evidence to support their claim. While Millennials are staying in the renter pool longer, it’s generally not because of the reasons noted above. Let’s start with the first myth that increased mobility...
10 Multifamily Predictions for 2020
I hope everyone had a great holiday and enjoyed some quality time with friends and family. I was able to disconnect and spend a week in FL with my family. The time off is great, but I’m eager to get back to work and tackle the big initiatives and goals I have for the year ahead. In my first post of 2020, I want to make some predictions and point out the trends I see continuing within the multifamily space over the next 12 months. Here are my 10 multifamily predictions for 2020. The End of the ‘All White’ Kitchen: How many value-add projects do you see with the same ‘all-white’ look?...
Why Syndicators Should Always Over Raise Equity
Moses Kagan is the founder of Adaptive Realty which focuses on heavy value-add multifamily projects throughout the LA area. I really enjoy his views on the real estate business which he shares often over on his blog. In his most recent post, he discusses a concerning trend he’s seeing utilized by syndicators who raise capital via crowdfunding sites. In order to attract investors to their deal, syndicators must market deals with both current cash flow and high IRR’s. However, in today’s market, it’s nearly impossible to have both, so syndicators are over-raising capital to be used to make...
When Knowing Too Much Makes you a Bad Investor
Over the past 10 years, we’ve executed nearly $75M worth of renovation work across 20+ value-add multifamily projects. Over that period, we’ve experienced many of the unexpected things that can go wrong when executing these deals; hidden physical issues, larger than expected tax reassessments, tenant lawsuits, crime, resident delinquency issues, and submarket challenges like unanticipated new supply or poor policy decisions, to name a few. It’s like Farmers Insurance, “we know a thing or two because we’ve seen a thing or two”. While being educated on all the potential risks of a deal...
Routine Replacement Expenses: “Multifamily’ s Dirty Little Secret”
I was talking with a multifamily fund operator who’s been in the business for 30+ years. His firm started out buying class C multi deals and scaled up over time to raise a fund with institutional capital to acquire higher-quality, light value-add multifamily assets. The primary driver of the movement upstream was the capital-intensive nature of older vintage apartment properties. The ongoing capital needs make it difficult to hold these assets long-term and require holding significant reserves. In real estate, ‘cap rate’ is used as a crude metric for valuation and is simply a measure of...
The Challenge of Holding Multifamily Assets Long-Term
In my previous post, I talked about the value of compounding which results over holding multifamily real estate assets long-term. While that’s great in theory, it’s difficult to hold older vintage multifamily assets long-term (longer than 10 years). At Atlas, our business plan typically entails renovating and repositioning assets to bring them in line with other recently upgraded communities in the area. We rebrand the property, correct operational deficiencies, clean up deferred maintenance, improve curb appeal, and upgrade amenities and unit interiors; all of which typically result in...
Hold Real Estate Forever, Reinvest, Compound, Don’t Pay Taxes, And Get Rich Slow
Real estate is a long-term, get rich slow business. That’s something you hear a lot, but the math and reasoning behind it is rarely illustrated. At Atlas REP, our investment strategy centers around buying cash-flowing value-added multifamily properties and holding long-term (10+ years). I believe multifamily real estate investing is most attractive over a long time horizon given the strong and consistent cash flow combined with significant tax benefits. To illustrate these benefits, I wanted to show the equity growth and cash flow of a $100k real estate investment over 30 years. This was...
Apartments, Hotels, What’s the Difference!?
The way people are living, and traveling has fundamentally changed and the lines between apartments and hotels have blurred. Guests and renters are no longer constrained by a market flooded with watered-down options and brands dictating the experience. Today, renters and travelers have nearly endless options, catering to any experience they seek. I recently traveled to Nashville and I decided to test out Niido, an apartment community ‘powered by Airbnb’. It’s a traditional midrise apartment community that allows (encourages, actually) its residents to rent out their apartments...
Bringing a Hospitality Mindset to Multifamily Development
We’re in the midst of a multifamily development boom. If you’ve been to any major city over the past few years, you see ‘stumpy’ midrise developments everywhere. The forgettable stick-frame buildings all look similar. They are relatively cheap to construct, go up quickly, and cater to a wave of demand from Millennials and Gen Z’ers delaying marriage, having kids, and buying or renting a home in the suburb. With the cost of construction and land at elevated levels, development yields are compressed, developers have little flexibility to physically differentiate their property from the...
The Bearish Case for Multifamily
Multifamily has been the darling of the recovery and remains one of the most sought-after asset classes. And why wouldn’t it be? We’re constantly bombarded with the case for multifamily; there’s a secular shift toward renting, millennials are getting married and having kids later, baby boomers are downsizing and seeking an urban lifestyle, multifamily construction was well below historic norms coming out of the recession, many 18-34-year-old’s live at home and will eventually enter the renter pool etc. etc. It’s a compelling case. Some of these are real, while others are overblown. In...
The Multifamily ‘Amenities Arms Race’ Shows no Signs of Slowing
Multifamily development has picked up considerably over the past few years, as the demand for high-quality apartment communities near major employment centers and entertainment has increased. Driven by demographics, couples getting married and having kids later, lifestyle choices, and pent-up demand, millennials, Gen Z, and some Baby Boomers are flocking to newly-developed class A communities. These individuals seek a lifestyle and expect way more than a nice place to live; they desire conveniences, technology, a robust resident event program and sense of community, and amenities. Lots of...