Multifamily Real Estate Investing – Ignore the Noise and Focus on What’s Not Going to Change
One of the main reasons I write online is to document how I think during uncertain times, and right now, in early April 2025, things feel especially uncertain. Every major headline points to chaos: a trade war with China, a sharp selloff in Treasuries, a volatile stock market, falling consumer confidence, fear of inflation, growing concerns of a recession etc. etc. How can you make high-conviction investment decisions in this setting? WSJ - 4/11/25 A lot of this noise, however, is just that - noise. Yes, these issues matter, and it’s important to stay informed, but for long-term...
10 Things I’m Pondering Going into 2025
Typically, at this time of the year I’m down in Florida, enjoying some time in the sun with my family. However, this year is a bit different. We’re patiently waiting a new baby, providing some extra time to ponder the year ahead. It’s the calm before the storm. Nobody needs another year-end roundup or set of predictions, but this isn’t for you. It’s for me. One of the reasons I enjoy writing so much is that I find it helpful to craft narratives around all the messy data, events, and random chaos that surrounds me. It provides a much-needed sense of calm. This is the story I’m telling...
Is it too Early to Buy Multifamily?
We all know the famous Warrant Buffet quote, “be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful”. It’s a saying that gets thrown around often these days, but not one that’s applicable to the current multifamily market. There’s general optimism in the market and plenty of capital waiting to be deployed for the right opportunities. However, owners of high-quality multifamily assets are unwilling to sell for ~20% discounts, especially when NOIs are up, there’s considerable dry powder, and there are expectations of rates falling. They may sell at ~5%-10% discounts,...
The Truth about Real Estate’s Latest Dirt Word: “Syndication”
In real estate, when the market is hot and values/cash flows are increasing, every mistake gets overlooked. When the market turns (and it always does), investors scrutinize everything. However, in today’s world where anyone can produce media, it’s not just investors who scrutinize, it’s anon Twitter accounts, newsletters, niche media sites etc. In real estate today, there’s no bigger public punching bag than multifamily syndicators. I’m not going to say it’s undeserved. There are several high-profile examples of multifamily syndicators who got over their skis, charge exorbitant...
5 Things I’m Pondering Going into 2024
We made it. 2023 was by far the most difficult of my professional career which started in 2011. I dealt with a myriad of deal and market-related issues; uncapped floating rate debt straining cash flows, raising preferred equity behind an agency loan, inability to access construction financing, complex capex challenges in an environment with no liquidity, and general market pessimism which makes everything feel worse. In the past, rents/values kept growing and with interest rates at zero, we’ve been able to continually refi deals at higher valuations, and sock proceeds away as reserves or...
Fall 2023 State of the Multifamily Market – Time for Optimism
Although it’s only been a few months since my last state of the multifamily market update, I feel like it’s time to write another one. That post is not dated by any means but needs to be expanded upon. The world is changing rapidly, pessimism has crept in, rates being higher for longer is becoming consensus, and ‘survive until 25’ is the new motto. I spend a lot of time reading and talking with people, attempting to organize my thoughts in a cohesive narrative that drives my investment thesis. This post is another attempt to take all the messy information and weave it into a story that I...
Summer 2023 Multifamily Landscape: Best Buying Opportunity in a Decade?
Over the past few years, with the world changing so rapidly, I’ve posted several times on the state of the multifamily market. It’s been a great way to organize my thoughts, distill all the information I’ve been consuming into a semi-coherent narrative, and justify my investment strategy. Here are just a few of the posts: Making Sense of the Multifamily Market (June 2022) A Golden Era for Apartments? (February 2021) What’s Going on with the Multifamily Market (August 2020) This is the Moment We’ve all been Waiting for (June 2020) Suffice to say, my views on the market change quickly, but...
Expecting Multifamily Distress in 2023? You’re Going to be Disappointed
I started my career in real estate in 2011 and have experienced a decade of low rates and increasing asset values. Success in multifamily investing was driven simply by being in the game. Well, the game has changed. Today’s environment is unprecedented. I’ve been spending an inordinate amount of time recently reading macro news, speaking with brokers, and underwriting deals. We’ve quickly shifted from over-exuberance to fear and everyone I speak to in the multifamily space is preparing for “distress” and lining up capital for buying opportunities. While there has been a much-needed...
Long-Term Trends Impacting Multifamily
As 2022 winds to a close, I’m sure you’re getting inundated with predictions for 2023. While I certainly enjoy making predictions (like I did in 2019), I struggle with forecasting short-term trends. In 2019, for example, I was talking about renter flexibility and the disruption of the STR business. While the predictions were directionally correct, real estate is a slow-moving business with trends emerging over decades, not in a single year. What’s more relevant and interesting to me are the longer-term trends impacting the multifamily industry. At Atlas, we buy/develop quality multifamily...
Understanding the 2021 Multifamily Demand Surge
At Atlas, I oversee a portfolio of multifamily assets primarily located in the Southeast. What an easy job that was in 2021! Rents and occupancy boomed as we experienced record new lease demand and high resident retention. The chart below highlights the YoY lease trade-outs by month from Feb 22’ through September 22’. YoY Rent Growth - FL Portfolio This post is my desire to better understand the dynamics of 2020 and 2021 rent growth explosion. At first, it was a bit of a mystery to many housing economists, but looking back it’s obvious. From 2009 to 2015, I Iived in NYC with two buddies....
Why Multifamily Values are Down 10%-20%
As I’ve noted many times before, I view this blog as a tool to clarify my thinking, vet ideas, and share my views at specific points in time. Given the volatility and uncertainty in the current market, I’ve spent more time reading, thinking and writing recently. The multifamily market today is particularly interesting. I wrote a general update back in June, where I provided an overview of inflation and rates, the single-family housing market, the strength of the consumer, and multifamily supply/demand fundamentals. TLDR: multifamily fundamentals remain strong, I expect rent growth to be...
Making Sense of the Multifamily Market Today – June 2022
The multifamily market today is the strangest in my relatively short career (12 years). The range of potential economic outcomes is wide, and I certainly lack the experience to assess the impact inflation, rates, and a recession may have on the multifamily market over the near-term. What’s great about having this outlet is that I get to write things down and think out loud, documenting my thoughts and doing my best to make sense of the market. While admittedly I’m not sure what’s going to happen, the over-used adage rings true – while history may not repeat itself, it does rhyme. ...
How to Buy Multifamily Deals in 2022
It’s no secret multifamily valuations are through the roof with cap rates at all-time lows as capital pours into multifamily real estate, especially in high-growth southeast markets. In addition to cap rate compression, we’re experiencing unprecedented rent growth, driving values up further. The combination of compressing cap rates and rent growth is leading to eye-popping valuations, most notable on a price per pound basis. In the Florida apartment market, where I’m most active, many 80’s vintage deals are trading for ~$350k+ per unit and new construction deals are eclipsing the $400k...
Southeast Multifamily: Institutionalization, Rent Growth, and Room to Run?
Happy new year! As we kick off 2022, I wanted to dig into one of the hottest real estate segments, multifamily in high-growth markets in the Southeast. At least once a week I hear about a new fund targeting value-add multifamily deals across the Southeast, an operator opening a Miami office, or an Opportunity Zone fund targeting sites in the Sunbelt. This isn’t just anecdotal, the Sunbelt has been gaining share of the total apartment sales consistently since 2007, growing from ~35% of total sales volume to nearly ~60% today (3Q2021 - RealPage). That growth has come primarily at the...
A ‘Golden Era’ for Apartments?
My recent post, things don’t stay good forever, was intended to serve as a reminder that even when things are good, fundamentals matter. It was not a bearish take on multifamily. In fact, I’m as bullish multifamily real estate today as I’ve ever been. Dr. Peter Linneman recently joined Willy Walker to chat about the economy and real estate market. When Dr. Linneman talks, people listen. So when he claimed the next decade is going to be a ‘golden era’ for apartments, the industry took notice. His thesis is straightforward; in a world starved for yield and awash with money, asset classes...
What’s going on with Multifamily Rents and Occupancies at Class B/C Properties – October 2020
Multifamily as an asset class has performed well since the onset of COVID, especially Class B and C properties. As of the end of Q2, occupancy and rents were more or less flat. This is staggering when you consider employment was down 11.5 million jobs and the Q2 GDP declined by an annualized 32.9%. Let’s unpack the story, starting with occupancy. The strong occupancy is easier to explain than resilient rents. Most impactful has been the many forms of eviction moratoriums. Residents who would typically be evicted for non-payment or skip to avoid eviction, are hunkering down and remaining...
The State of Evictions and the Role of Housing in Poverty
If you work in multifamily real estate (especially workforce housing), you’ve probably spent a lot of your time recently monitoring collections, modifying payment procedures, and working with delinquent residents. You’ve been closely tracking the various eviction restrictions enacted by the CARES Act, state and local agencies, and the CDC, trying to make sense of what it all means and what adjustments you should be making at the property-level. You’ve likely lost sleep thinking about the impact the expiration of the additional $600 per week in unemployment benefits may have on collections...
What’s Going on with Multifamily – August 2020
As I write this, I’m sitting in my home office, working at full capacity. The S&P 500 is back near all-time highs and asset prices have remained high, driven by the reduction of interest rates to near zero and the liquidity that has flooded the markets. Things almost feel good. What’s happening in the economy, however, is a stark contrast. In Q2 we experienced the greatest setback in history (based on GDP decline), COVID-19 isn’t anywhere close to being under control, and a second spike is looming, complicating efforts to re-open the economy. In May, I wrote about the widely-held...
This is the moment we’ve all been waiting for
I started my career in real estate in 2009. For the first 11 years, I enjoyed one of the longest expansions in history. I remember thinking in 2015 that assets were expensive and good opportunities were hard to come by. I’m not sure where that came from. Perhaps it was purely the fact that assets in 2015 were much more expensive than they were in 2011? Regardless, I never pretended to know where we were in the cycle. Here’s what I wrote in 2015: I have no idea “what inning” we’re in. Market pundits spend a lot of time talking about what inning we’re in and whether or not we’re in a...
Should I pay my rent?
Over the past 3 weeks, nearly 17 million people filed for unemployment. True unemployment at this moment is about 18%, compared with just 3.5% as of the first week of March. Many of these individuals rent apartments, have little in the way of savings, and find themselves in a difficult position. Thankfully, the government has taken swift action. The recently enacted CARES Act puts money in the hands of individuals so they can keep paying their bills, but the timing of the stimulus remains uncertain. The CARES Act also put a moratorium on evictions for any property financed with...
Thoughts on COVID-19 and the Impact on Workforce Housing: March 22nd, 2020
I started my career in the real estate business in 2009, the bottom of the Global Financial Crisis. It’s been a historic 10+-year run for the multifamily sector. The combination of economic growth, organic rent growth, compressing cap rates, and sustained low interest rates lead to great returns. That’s easy to say looking backward. There were many moments over the past 10 years where it felt like pricing was frothy and the music was ready to stop. My career has always been underscored by the risk of a recession driven by an unknown catalyst. I graduated from college in 2008 and saw...
The Bearish Case for Multifamily
Multifamily has been the darling of the recovery and remains one of the most sought-after asset classes. And why wouldn’t it be? We’re constantly bombarded with the case for multifamily; there’s a secular shift toward renting, millennials are getting married and having kids later, baby boomers are downsizing and seeking an urban lifestyle, multifamily construction was well below historic norms coming out of the recession, many 18-34-year-old’s live at home and will eventually enter the renter pool etc. etc. It’s a compelling case. Some of these are real, while others are overblown. In...
What’s Driving the Demand for Apartments and why I’m Bullish Class B Multi
Multifamily, class B in particular, has been one of the best performing asset classes over the past decade. Demand has outpaced supply, leading to sustained rent growth and significant investor interest. As of March 2019, the average apartment vacancy rate was near all-time lows at roughly 6.5%. While the demand drivers for apartments is somewhat obvious, I want to dig into the statistics/fundamentals in more depth. It’s important to first understand the size of the market. There are 120M households in the U.S. totaling 317M total people. Of the total households, roughly 43M are...
What Happens to Class B/C Apartment Investments During a Downturn?
I'm a firm believer that real estate is best held long-term with great local teams on the ground. At Atlas, our model (deal-by-deal syndication) enables us to acquire assets that we can hold for 20+ years and control the repositioning with great local teams. From an asset class perspective, we focus primarily on acquiring value-add class B/C garden-style apartments. Although valuations may swing wildly across cycles, cash-flow remains relatively stable. By having full controls, we can exit/refi at optimal times, while maintaining conservative leverage and cash reserves to weather any...
It’s Better in the Crest
Growing up, I spent every summer on the Jersey Shore. My parents have a house on Sunset Lake in Wildwood Crest, the last exit off the Parkway before hitting Cape May. I’d spend my weekends between baseball and soccer games, ‘down the shore’, fishing, boating, doing water sports, biking the boardwalk, hanging on the beach, and going out for ice cream. Each evening we’d gather for a family dinner and witness the most beautiful sunset, watching as the colors of the sky changed from a bright yellow/orange to deep reds and purples. As a kid there was nowhere else on earth I’d rather be...
The Real Estate Topics We Spend Our Time Thinking About
The past Friday I represented Atlas at the Columbia Business School Real Estate Career Forum. The Columbia Club was packed with blue chip firms. Our table was sandwiched between the behemoths of Blackrock and Clarion Partners, so in an attempt to stand out and engage the students, we created a one-pager with the topics that we spend a lot of time thinking about and a few career-based questions. At Atlas, we pride ourselves on being at the forefront of the real estate business and using our nimbleness and entrepreneurial approach as a competitive advantage. I think that resonated with many...
How I Stay on Top of the Market
While my days are often filled with meetings, calls, and emails, I think it’s important to carve out an hour or so each day to stay atop the market. This is just as much a part of my job as is my daily responsibilities. It’s from these articles, interviews, and research that I get my inspiration and form my market opinions. Readers often ask me how I stay on top of the market -here goes: Real Estate Market News (Daily Check) National Real Estate Investor Online Globe Street Commercial Observer CoStar News Multihousing News Online Multifamily Executive Magazine Bloomberg (Real Estate)...
Content Discovery: Value Hound – A Community of Real Estate Value Investors
I’m back from my two week European vacation and I have lots of great content lined up for the next few months. I’ve found that it’s extremely important for me to shut down the engines every once in a while, as challenging as that may be. I always return full of inspiration and enthusiasm. I like to think that I’m pretty in-tuned to the various sources of real estate news/information that’s available online, however once in a while I discover a source that I didn’t know existed. A well-respected colleague of mine recently introduced me to ValueHound, a site dedicated exclusively to...
Floored by Real Estate Innovation
Real estate is generally considered a late adopting business full of dinosaurs who don’t embrace new technologies. While widely true (ok, almost entirely true), it certainly didn’t feel that way at Art Assets event highlighting real estate innovation. The event featured Riggs Kubiak of Honest Buildings, Ben Miller of Fundrise, and David Eisenberg, founder of Floored, a revolutionary 3D mapping program. While Ben and Riggs are real estate practitioners who saw inefficiency in the business and set out to improve it, David is a non-real estate guy who’s shaking up the business. Jason...
Why I’m a Renter
After 3 indescribable years in my Murray Hill apartment, I’ve decided it’s time to move on, to a new neighborhood. While I’m excited to explore a different area of the island, and to start a new chapter of my life in NYC, I’m tasked with the job (and daunting task) of finding a new apartment. With vacancy rates hovering near 1%, finding an apartment in NYC resembles more of a competitive sport than an inevitable part of city living. I’m not alone in this situation. Many of my friends and colleagues who are now in their mid- to upper-20’s are making the move from their frat-style...
My Thoughts on the Single-Family Rental (SFR)
A few weeks ago I published a one-line post: What did you do back when interest rates were the lowest of your lifetime? For an investor and entrepreneur, these are truly unprecedented times, yet few are actually taking advantage of this economic landscape. I hope to look back in 20 years and have a good answer. The greatest opportunity in real estate these days is the emerging real estate segment - the single-family rental. Heck, there was even a story on Planet Money of a 14 year-old Florida girl who purchased her own rental home! From 5 years ago, roughly speaking, housing prices are...
Compstak – A Marketplace for CRE Lease Comps
Throughout my brief career in commercial real estate, I've seen a lot of innovation. From 3D mapping, mobile, and retail tech, to the data space, tech-related start-ups are proliferating. I was lucky enough to be part of a test group for Compstak, a new crowd-sourced database of lease comparables launching in New York City. Compstak is destined to be a game-changer and one of the founders was nice enough to take the time to sit down and answer a few questions. Enter Mike: Like many great start-ups, the idea behind CompStak came to you from an inefficiency you noticed in the market while...
The Question is….
What did you do back when interest rates were the lowest of your lifetime? Make sure you have a good answer for this in twenty years.
Wildwood Crest, NJ – An Example for Potential Real Estate Opportunities in Beach Towns
Growing up in the Philadelphia area, summers were spent down the Jersey Shore or just "the shore". For me, that meant weekends with friends and family in Wildwood Crest. Having spent the last few days down the shore, I decided to write a locally-focused post. I'm not too in-tune with the local market, however I've spent the last few days biking through town and I've made a number of observations. From a real estate standpoint the Crest is characterized by classic Victorian-style architecture and Doo-Wop motels. However, over the last 10 years, the Crest experienced an unprecedented amount...